Corn growers are increasingly frustrated about fertilizer prices, with a new survey showing concern accelerating well beyond the current planting season.
Results from two nationwide surveys released by the National Corn Growers Association show anxiety about fertilizer affordability and availability rising sharply — especially for the 2027 crop. One survey of nearly 1,000 farmers was conducted by Farm Journal in late March, alongside a separate NCGA member survey that collected more than 600 responses. Both surveys carry a margin of error of less than five percent.
The most striking finding: for every farmer expressing greater concern about fertilizer prices and availability for the 2026 crop, nearly two farmers say they are more concerned about 2027.
“Fertilizer purchasing decisions are forward-looking,” the report notes, adding that today’s uncertainty is already shaping how farmers view risk heading into future crop cycles.
Nebraska farmer Jason Lewis, a member of NCGA’s board, says the survey confirms what growers are already feeling on their balance sheets.
“We’ve seen input prices continue to rise while crop prices go the other direction,” Lewis said. “This isn’t just a gut feeling anymore — these are hard numbers that show what’s happening.”
Retail fertilizer prices spiked following the onset of conflict in the Middle East, a region that accounts for an estimated 40 to 50 percent of global seaborne urea trade. While fertilizer prices remain below their 2022 peak levels, affordability has worsened sharply because corn prices are far lower.
On a “currency of corn” basis, growers now need a record 185 bushels of corn to purchase a single ton of urea — the highest level ever recorded. Corn prices are hovering around $4.50 per bushel, compared to more than $8 per bushel during the previous fertilizer price spike.
According to the survey, urea prices are up 37 percent — roughly $227 per ton — since the conflict began. Other nitrogen fertilizers have increased between 20 and 23 percent, and 90 percent of farmers report higher nitrogen prices at their local retailer.
Lewis said the speed and scale of those increases are difficult for growers to absorb.
“That’s usually our lowest-cost nitrogen source,” he said, referring to anhydrous ammonia. “When that jumps, everything else follows.”
Beyond price, supply availability is emerging as a growing concern. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global fertilizer shipments — has dropped roughly 95 percent from pre-conflict levels. Production slowdowns have also been reported in countries including Qatar, India and Bangladesh.
Despite those risks, the survey shows most farmers remain supplied for the 2026 growing season. About 60 percent of growers report having fully purchased or secured their nitrogen needs, with similar levels reported for phosphate. Half of NCGA members surveyed do not expect problems applying their full fertilizer rates this year.
Still, worry intensifies looking ahead.
Fertilizer supply chains operate on long timelines, and NCGA warns that disruptions now could snowball into shortages during the late summer and fall import window — when farmers typically begin securing inputs for the 2027 crop.
Policy decisions could further complicate matters. NCGA has raised concerns over continued countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco, arguing that trade barriers limit supply flexibility at a time when global markets are already strained.
Lewis said without action, today’s affordability issues could become a full-blown availability problem.
“How much equity can an operation burn trying to wait this out?” he asked. “That’s the question farmers are starting to wrestle with.”
