Cattle Call is an original production of the Nebraska Rural Radio Association and presented by Blue Chip Herefords – Oxford, Nebraska.
While federal slaughter data suggests a massive year-over-year contraction in the U.S. cattle supply, market analyst Brad Kooima of KKV Trading warns that the industry may be “pushing a bubble” rather than facing a true shortage.
In the latest episode of Cattle Call, Kooima noted that steer and heifer slaughter is down nearly 10% year-to-date. However, he cautioned against interpreting this solely as a lack of available animals. Instead, he pointed to a fundamental shift in how cattle are managed: they are staying in feedlots longer, growing heavier, and being bolstered by an influx of beef-on-dairy genetics.
“I think that there’s more cattle there than what those numbers are indicating,” Kooima said. “It’s because they’ve been sustained and kept on feed and kept on feed… it’s a very, very fine line between not enough and too many.”
Kooima highlighted the rising dominance of beef-on-dairy crosses, which often enter the feeding system at just one day old and remain on feed for up to 14 months. This prolonged feeding cycle, driven by cheap pounds of gain and high grading potential, may be distorting the USDA’s traditional supply metrics, he said.
As packers face “red ink” and begin slowing kill schedules to 32-hour weeks to manage margins, Kooima said the industry faces a delicate balancing act to prevent a summer supply “teeter-totter” tip.
Other topics this week:
- Regional Leverage: The price disparity between the North (averaging $250) and the South ($248) despite record numbers in Nebraska and Iowa.
- Dairy Integration: The “sophisticated” shift where dairies use sexed semen to produce high-value beef-cross calves as a primary profit center.
- Border Volatility: The impact of the closed Mexican border and rumors of a gradual reopening on future feeder supplies.
- Environmental Risks: The “crisis mode” for ranchers needing immediate rain to avoid early cattle liquidations.
- Market Logistics: Observations of “eleventh-hour” Friday showdowns between packers and feedlots and their impact on harvest schedules.
