The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Friday it will begin a phased reopening of southern ports for Mexican cattle imports next month, a move that comes just hours after new federal data shows the first tentative signs of herd rebuilding in the United States following years of historically tight supplies.
Beginning Aug. 24, USDA will reopen the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry to cattle from Mexico’s Sonora state. Additional ports in Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico, could reopen later, depending on Mexico’s progress under a joint action plan to contain New World screwworm.
Every animal entering the United States will undergo a USDA inspection before crossing the border, and the department said reopening could be delayed or paused if disease risks increase.
For U.S. cattle producers, the announcement introduces another potential supply factor after more than a year of restricted imports from Mexico, which has long supplied feeder cattle to U.S. feedlots. While the phased reopening is expected to restore some cattle movement, analysts say its long-term impact remains uncertain.
The timing is notable because it follows USDA’s latest Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports, released Friday afternoon, which offered mixed signals for the cattle cycle.
The nation’s total cattle and calf inventory rose slightly to 94.2 million head from 94.0 million a year earlier, marking the first year-over-year increase after several years of contraction. Beef replacement heifers, the females producers retain to grow their herds, increased 3%, suggesting ranchers are beginning to position for expansion.
At the same time, the report showed beef cow numbers remained down 1% from a year ago, while the 2026 calf crop is projected to decline 2%. June placements into feedlots were the smallest for the month since 2008, underscoring that feeder cattle supplies remain historically tight in the near term.
Livestock market analyst Kyle Bumsted said the reports suggest two realities exist at once.
“The feeder pipeline just got tighter,” Bumsted said. “A smaller calf crop stacked on top of heifer retention means fewer cattle available to place over the next 18 months.”
At the same time, he said, increased heifer retention signals the industry’s expansion phase may finally be beginning, though additional cattle will take years to reach the marketplace.
That makes USDA’s border announcement another variable for producers already watching for signs that the record cattle market could gradually transition toward larger supplies.
How much additional supply ultimately returns from Mexico remains an open question.
The reopening also comes as many feedlots, particularly in the southern Plains, continue operating below capacity because of the prolonged cattle shortage. KKV Trading analyst Brad Kooima said last week that while Northern feedlots remain relatively full, many Texas yards still have large numbers of empty pens after years of herd liquidation. Even if imports resume, he has cautioned that Mexico’s expanded feeding and processing sector means previous import volumes may never fully return.
Kooima also said earlier this year the prolonged border closure has reshaped Mexico’s cattle industry. Rather than waiting for U.S. demand to return, he said Mexican producers expanded their own feeding and processing capacity.
“Has it changed their infrastructure? Absolutely,” Kooima said. “You can’t sit around for 15 months with a 600-pound steer.”
Kooima said Mexico has increased slaughter capacity by maximizing existing packing plants, a shift he believes could permanently reduce the number of feeder cattle shipped north.
“We’ve let this go long enough,” he said. “I don’t think it’ll ever go back to quite the way it was.”
Before the closure, the United States imported roughly 1.3 million head of Mexican cattle annually.
“Don’t kid yourself. You’re not going to get that 1.3 million head a year again anymore,” Kooima said. “I think they found out they like it, too.”
New World screwworm remains the key trade concern
The border reopening comes as USDA continues responding to confirmed New World screwworm detections in the United States.
According to USDA’s latest screwworm dashboard, there are 42 confirmed domestic cases in the United States, including nine active cases and 33 cases classified as inactive. The active cases are concentrated in Texas and involve cattle, sheep, goats and a dog.
Several earlier detections have been classified as inactive following response efforts.
USDA has said every animal crossing the southern border will undergo inspection for signs of New World screwworm as part of the phased reopening plan. The agency has identified Sonora and Chihuahua as lower-risk areas for imports because of their established animal health programs and distance from southern Mexico, where the majority of cases have been concentrated.
New World screwworm is a parasitic fly whose larvae feed on living tissue and can cause severe wounds or death in livestock if untreated. The disease risk remains the reason USDA is taking a phased approach rather than fully reopening all ports immediately.
USDA said Sonora and Chihuahua remain Mexico’s lowest-risk states for New World screwworm because of their established animal health programs and distance from the areas where most infestations have been detected. The department said the closest active case to the Douglas port was about 325 miles away as of July 22.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the phased reopening reflects progress made under the joint action plan while maintaining safeguards to protect the U.S. livestock industry. USDA said future port openings will remain contingent on Mexico meeting animal health milestones and could be suspended if risks increase.
