Cattle Call is an original production of the Nebraska Rural Radio Association and presented by Blue Chip Herefords – Oxford, Nebraska.
More than a year after the U.S. closed its border to Mexican feeder cattle, the long-term impacts are becoming clearer, and may permanently alter cattle flows between the two countries, according to KKV Trading’s Brad Kooima.
In this week’s episode of Cattle Call, Kooima said the extended shutdown has forced Mexico to rapidly adapt, building feeding capacity and expanding harvest infrastructure rather than relying on U.S. demand.
“Has it changed their infrastructure? Absolutely,” Kooima said. “You can’t sit around for 15 months with a 600-pound steer.”
He pointed to a significant increase in feeding and processing activity south of the border, fueled in part by U.S. corn exports and strong cattle prices.
“There’s no question about it,” he said. “They’re doing it.”
Perhaps most notably, Kooima said Mexico has dramatically increased harvest capacity, not by building new plants, but by maximizing existing ones.
“Every plant that we have that used to kill eight hours a day is killing 24/7,” he said. “They run three shifts. They’re making tons of money.”
That shift could have lasting consequences for U.S. cattle supplies, even if the border reopens.
“We’ve let this go long enough,” Kooima said. “I don’t think it’ll ever go back to quite the way it was.”
While he expects trade to eventually resume, Kooima warned producers should not assume previous import volumes will return.
“Don’t kid yourself. You’re not going to get that 1.3 million [head of cattle] a year again anymore,” he said. “I think they found out they like it, too.”
Other topics discussed:
- A technically driven rally in futures markets despite outside pressure
- Concerns about beef demand amid higher prices and economic headwinds
- Record carcass weights and increased production
- Shifts in packer margins and cattle market leverage
- Seasonal expectations for the Choice-Select spread and spring demand
USDA may soon provide clarity on trade policy as well. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the department is evaluating a phased reopening of the U.S.–Mexico border to feeder cattle imports, with a decision expected in the next two to four weeks. Any initial reopening would likely be limited to select ports while officials continue efforts to contain the spread of New World screwworm in Mexico.
